Discretionary 2022-2025

This report summarizes a discretionary trading activity executed live from 2022 to 2025 on major delta-one eFX markets (230 trades). The core framework is built around statistically-defined exhaustion areas derived from structural price-ratio relationships. These areas act as decision zones: when price reaches them, the strategy looks for confirmation that the move is statistically stretched and likely to revert or transition. Performance is driven by two statistically significant sources of edge. The first (“Mode”) targets repeatable regime behavior around the exhaustion zones (mean-reversion / transition behavior that appears consistently in the data). The second (“+Heavy Tail”) is designed to capture asymmetric payoffs when market moves extend into fat-tail territory, allowing the strategy to benefit from convex outcomes without relying on frequent large bets. Although execution is discretionary, the process is tightly structured: entries and sizing are anchored to predefined zones, the same risk controls are applied across instruments, and results are monitored through stability and drawdown-focused diagnostics (e.g., ulcer-type behavior, tail-risk expansion, and stress tests).